US Consumer Confidence index Today Historical Data

 Consumer confidence within the North American country. born this month for the third consecutive month to ninety-five-seven, an all-time low purpose this year. nowadays the Fed is starting 2 days of conferences previous another expected charge per unit hike. The Fed making an attempt to slow the economy while not up pushing it off a drop. Record high inflation has fifty-eight of American citizens living bank checks to bank checks showing nearly yesterday, president Biden making an attempt to temper recession fears, talking regarding the roles numbers.

 We're not planning to be in an exceeding recession. In my view, the utilization rate continues to be one of the all-time lows we've had in history. We'll see some coming back down, however, I do not suppose we're planning to god willing, I do not suppose we're planning to see recession God willing. 

 So Steve, however, ought we have a tendency to be reading this latest client confidence report? It's over ninety, therefore the economy continues to be healthy, however, the numbers are principally born this year. The country's in an exceedingly foul mood.  Andrea? I believe that is the thanks to trusting it. High costs and inflation have very hard folks on the present state of the economy and also the economic outlook. whether or not or not numbers like this square measure planning to confirm outcomes, it is a completely different question. we have seen Americans being lousy moves before and leaving and paying.

 for instance, if you check out the patron confidence numbers once 911, they were shopping for an entire ton of cars however square measure in an exceedingly lousy mood at once. I believe the important issue is what is happening with Yankee pocketbooks at once, for low and moderate-income Americans, costs square measure rising quicker than their wages and their ability to stay up. thus I believe that is a giant part of what is happening. there is a bound political component to the current. And for that, I would move to another survey, or CNBC All America survey finds, for instance, that Republicans suppose the economy is poor by eight times a lot of eight to 3 measures than the Democrats square measure eightieth to half-hour. I believe the economy can worsen in seven to 3. thus there is a bound political facet to the current. however, at once Americans square measure in an exceedingly foul mood, and also the concern is that that foul mood can result in lower disbursal and maybe exacerbate any economic worsening we have a tendency to expertise.

And I wish to visualize the question regarding one thing that Janet Yellen, the Treasury Secretary, of course, aforementioned on Meet the Press to Chuck on Sunday as somewhat of a rebuttal to the GDP numbers that square measure planning to commence later on. And she's contestation that 2 sequential quarters of a retraction doesn't equal a recession, speech that the NBA goes to appear at different information, together with jobs. Take a glance. a standard definition of a recession is 2 negative quarters of GDP growth. a minimum of that is one thing that is been true in past recessions once we have seen that there has sometimes been a recession. however, I do wish to emphasize what a recession very means that could be a broad-based contraction within the economy. And though that variety is negative, we have a tendency to don't seem to be in an exceeding recession currently. and that I would warn that we should always not characterize that as a result.

So is it planning to be I mean, if it's 2 consecutive quarters of contraction, can it be a recession? Technically. Not really. that is a standard rule of thumb. And in fact, the treasury secretary is correct. once you have 2 quarters most of the time, it means that we have a tendency to be in an exceeding recession. the difficulty and it gets a bit difficult we have a tendency to have a negative half-moon as a result of we have a tendency to had this immense inflow of products from abroad that were delayed by the provision chain issues with the pandemic. so it absolutely was negative as a result of trade and since of inventories. however, if you check out the items that mattered within the economy within the half-moon, client disbursal and businesses, they were up three-d. so was pretty healthy. I do not suppose I would count the primary quarter as a negative as a result of those outstanding problems. 

I think we're planning to be terribly near to being negative or zero this quarter. which will have Maine involved as a result of that might return from reduced client disbursal and reduced business disbursal. Those square measure the items, Andrea, that you just wish to appear out for and fret regarding in terms of the economy do shoppers pull back, and do businesses pull back? It did not happen within the half-moon, however, it can be happening within the second. so we have a tendency to get the political impact. parliamentarian Josiah Willard Gibbs none of this can be nice for the president, however, he keeps informing the very fact that gas costs have been born recently. thus perhaps that massive impact, the fuel economy is getting down to improve. 

What regarding the midterms and the way this can be playing? five years, the challenge, Andrew, is client confidence could be an insulant indicator, right? thus even as we have seen over a month of declining gas costs, client confidence is not possible to replicate that for a few times. and that I suppose what Steve is talking regarding, the citizens, the folks of the country square measure in an exceedingly foul mood. And my question, supported what happens with these numbers, what we have a tendency to see out of the Fed tomorrow and so weekday with the GDP numbers, is will it begin a bigger conversation? the square measure we have a tendency to in an exceeding recession or square measure we have a tendency to not? That, again, I think, has the impact of constructing foul the mood that folks square measure already in intensifying fears. 

And to Steve's purpose, will that lead folks to start out getting down to pull back in an exceedingly bigger method and deepen what may be coming? thus I believe client confidence offers North American country a reasonably mother wit of the atmosphere with that following a hundred approximately days before the choice square measure planning to compete out.